Javonte Williams was one of the most polarizing pre-season fantasy players of 2022. He had all the measurables to be a superstar but had to split carries with Melvin Gordon. Those on the hype train seemed to believe he would emerge as a top 5 talent with a new and improved offense. Those who didn’t want a ticket-to-ride feared he would fall victim to the split-backfield system. One year later the debate rages on. Continue reading for an in-depth Javonte Williams Injury Update.
While many things in the Denver offense didn’t fall into place, Javonte’s health was one of the biggest. In three healthy games, he averaged 4.27 yards per carry and displayed his pass-catching ability against Seattle. But on October 2nd against the Raiders, Williams suffered the dreaded ACL tear (and more). A few days later he started the road to getting better. The offense wished it could say the same. From week 4 and beyond, no other running back for Denver performed as well on the ground or offered the same level of dual-threat ability.
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Javonte Williams Injury Update: The Damage
When a player suffers an ACL tear, most assume it’s a career killer for skilled positions. While that was the case for many years, recent studies are showing that full recovery can occur within 6 months and patients can return to pre-injury levels of production. The ACL is a ligament deep in the knee that keeps the shin from sliding forward or the femur from sliding backward. It is essential for running, cutting, and dealing with hits.
Javonte damaged more than just the ACL. He also suffered an LCL tear, and damage to his lateral meniscus. The LCL is a ligament on the outside of the knee that prevents bowing and bending out – away from the other knee. The meniscus is a cushion that helps reduce forces on bone and cartilage.
All this damage sounds terrible, but the research suggests that surgery addressing all of the issues at once results in better long-term outcomes than if the surgeries were performed individually. That’s fantastic news for Javonte dynasty owners.
The History
The medical outlook is positive, but what about the football outlook? Since 2018, starting NFL running backs who have suffered an ACL tear have come back to average 3.33 yards per carry in the season following their surgery which is not very good. However, in the second year after surgery, RBs averaged 4.44 yards per carry which is excellent. History and stats might not be on Javonte’s side this season, but youth is. Players under 25 years old had the best rebounds to their pre-injury performance level.
Averages are great, but let’s look at some examples. Adrian Peterson is the big one. He won the MVP in year one after his surgery with a 2000-yard rushing season. There are now articles comparing Javonte to AP. It’s important to note that AP is an outlier. He did something incredible. But it brings up a good point that MVP-caliber players usually return to MVP levels. Jamaal Charles also seconds this idea since he led the league in total yards 1-year post-surgery. This 2011-2012 period seemed to be a tipping point where RBs started having more success after surgery.
The Team
Thankfully, football is a bigger sport than just one person. Javonte might be set to regress a little in terms of production, but the offense looks set to progress significantly. In 2022 the Denver offensive line ranked 20th overall in rushing yards earned due to blocking. There was some success off the left end and average success between the left guard and center. But the entire right side was nearly last in the league.
This offseason Denver added Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey to improve the trenches. Powers was part of a top-10 interior blocking unit while McGlinchey held down the corner for an average run game but provided a big boost in pass protection. With Russ cooking again the offense should open more opportunities on the ground.
Not only will Javonte rise above “the guy defenses focus on”, but he’ll also be able to rush to either side of the center. That’s double the options he had last year!
The big note here is that Denver did not significantly address the running back position. They signed Samje Perine to a two-year deal, but he has been highlighted as a complimentary back or depth. Tony Jones Jr. is exclusively depth and Jacques Patrick, an XFL stud, might be used as a pure power back if he makes the 53-man roster. Denver had few draft picks this year but did not draft an RB or sign a UDFA RB. Altogether this is pretty telling that they are confident in Javonte’s potential this year.
The Schedule
It’s great that George Paton has addressed the things he can control, but the intangibles matter too. Mainly, the schedule and the host of defenses Denver will face directly affect Javonte’s return to production. Luckily, Denver faces 11 of the bottom 16 defenses from 2022 in terms of rush yards per attempt. In fact, Denver only faces 2 teams who stopped the run better than the league average.
The AFC West is a gunslinger division focused on keeping up with the Chiefs and stopping the Chiefs. A solid ground game with clock management has been a winning formula against these divisional foes. It’s the recipe that the Colts, a team with no business beating the Chiefs, have used to pull several upsets. If the new coaching staff in Denver learned anything, the game plan should favor Javonte with the additional volume on the ground. As a bonus, his pass-catching ability means he’ll never be scripted out of any game.
Javonte Williams Injury Update: The Outlook
Javonte currently has an ADP of 6.11 as the 28th RB to come off the board in PPR leagues. This is insane. He is an RB1 who is in line for improved volume behind an improved offensive line and has a great pass-catching ability. Of all the RBs drafted ahead of him, he soars over 16 of them. His surgery and recovery should not significantly affect his production thanks to his youth, scheme, improved blocking, and schedule which appears favorable to RBs.
I will target him in the late 3rd to 4th round of every league this season. He’s still a stud who is being overlooked due to general fear and misunderstanding. He is a massive steal for an RB2 with a big RB1 upside and will be a league winner barring major setbacks.