On Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, 10 skill positions were drafted. Let’s take a look at their immediate fantasy outlook in this 2023 Rookie Rankings.
The number notates the team’s current odds of winning the Super Bowl. Odds courtesy of BetMGM and Mybookie.ag. Both sportsbooks are offering a risk-free first bet of up to $1000!
Rookie QB Fantasy Outlook
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina +5000
Young will be the heavy favorite to be the Week 1 starter in Carolina. His ceiling is limited because of the mediocre supporting cast and offensive line. However, Young could be worth a late-round flier in redraft. Young might not be an every-week starter as a rookie, but he could be a solid streaming option or an effective player in two-quarterback leagues. Assuming health, Young could be ranked between QB16 and QB20.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston +20000
Like Young, Stroud will be the heavy favorite to be the Week 1 starter. The major difference is that Stroud is competing with Davis Mills. Mills is the incumbent starter while Young is competing with incoming veteran Andy Dalton. The Texans do not have a great supporting cast. They did add Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz in free agency, though. They will also get 2022 draft pick John Metchie back. He is not quite as solid of a fantasy option as Young, but he could be worth a spot in deeper two-QB leagues.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis +10000
Richardson has much more fantasy value than either Young or Stroud, but he has stiffer competition in Gardner Minshew. Minshew has been a moderately successful starter in the league, and he reunited with his offensive coordinator from the 2022 season. If Richardson starts, his rushing upside could propel him into the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks. For 2023, he could be the best option to draft even if he would not be the top quarterback drafted in dynasty leagues.
Rookie Fantasy Outlook RB
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta +6600
Robinson might have been a reach from a traditional draft perspective, but he solidified his place as the top rookie fantasy running back. While the Falcons have Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, Robinson should jump them on the depth chart and become the RB1 for a heavy rushing offense. Atlanta has a terrific run-blocking offensive line so Robinson could be in for a top-10 season by any fantasy running back.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit +2000
The Lions have a much deeper running back room than the Falcons do as they employ David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift. Swift could be dealt with in a trade, but for now, Gibbs is in a running back by committee – a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare. Like Robinson, Gibbs gets the benefit of an excellent run-blocking line, but he likely will not have the opportunity Robinson has. His value should grow year over year, though.
Rookie Fantasy Outlook WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle +5000
From a football perspective, Smith-Njigba is a perfect fit in Seattle’s offense as he will be able to slide into the slot and be a Day 1 starter. From a fantasy perspective, Smith-Njigba is limited because he is the third wide receiver behind two hyper-productive studs in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He will be an effective handcuff, but he is the third wide receiver in a run-oriented offense with Metcalf and Lockett healthy.
Quentin Johnston, WR, LA Chargers +2800
Johnston is in a similar situation to Smith-Njigba, but he will be in a much more productive passing offense with a better quarterback in Justin Herbert. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen will get plenty of targets, but they both have extensive injury histories. Johnston should spend a chunk of the year as a high-upside WR2 in the Chargers’ offense, so he could be fantasy relevant early in his rookie season.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore +1800
Flowers will not be the top target – that’s Mark Andrews – but he could be the No. 2 target in Baltimore. Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham have injury histories. Neither is guaranteed to be ahead of Flowers on the pecking order, especially as the season continues. Flowers has a limited fantasy ceiling because of the anticipated Todd Monken offense. He does have a clear path to being the top wide receiver on the roster.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota +4000
Addison is the clear No. 2 wide receiver and No. 3 pass catcher for the Vikings immediately. As the foil to Justin Jefferson, Addison will draw easier assignments from cornerbacks and coverages in general. As a rookie, Addison might be the wide receiver to own because he will have a decent target share. The receivers behind him likely will not be too competitive for the WR2 role in the offense.
Rookie Fantasy Outlook TE
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo +850
Rookie tight ends are notoriously difficult to predict. Kincaid should be approached with some caution. He could be a high-touchdown player with immense value but also be lost in the margins. Tight End is a brutal transition from college to the NFL. However, the tight-end position is fairly shallow, so even moderate production could launch Kincaid into relevant territory.
Rookie Fantasy Outlook
History proves that first-round draft picks can be a hit or miss in the NFL. But these players were chosen for a reason. They have both the tangibles and intangibles that should put them in great positions to make an impact on your fantasy team. Depending on the fantasy league type, you won’t be able to have them all (unless you play daily or weekly fantasy like OwnersBox). So make sure to scoop up your favorite.