In 2022 the Jet’s offense revolved around 1 player – Breece Hall. The rookie running back was on the verge of being a superstar. In week 7 against the Broncos, Breece Hall’s Fantasy season came to a halt when he suffered a knee injury that ended his season.
While locked in a tackle, he was hit by another defender which caused his knee to buckle (his tibia translated anteriorly) and caused a torn ACL and meniscus damage. This left the Jet’s offense with a backfield that was basically Breece or Bust.
So, what should we expect for Breece Hall’s 2023 fantasy season? Continue reading to find out what we expect for the second-year pro (it’s not great).
Need help with a fantasy team name?
Breece Hall’s Impressive Rookie Fantasy Season
In the first 7 weeks, Breece rushed 80 times for 463 yards and 4 TDs. These stats are solid, but they’re even better when you consider he only started 2 games and had single-digit touches in 4 games. He was first in defense-adjusted values which means he balled out against otherwise quality defenses.
His 5.8 yards per rush was the league’s best of all running backs. If we extrapolate those stats to 17 games it looks like 181 rushes, 1124.5 yards, and 9 TDs. That would have put him as RB 10 in just ground yards.
Factor in his pass-catching ability and that could be 54 catches and 500 yards receiving. That would be a pretty impressive fantasy season for Breece Hall.
Breece Hall Injury – The Surgery and Recovery
The exact date of Breece’s surgery is obscured. There are varying reports that the surgery occurred between Oct 24th and November 18th and no official statement from the Jets. We know the injury occurred on Oct. 23rd. If you need a refresher on the anatomy, check out this article here.
The MRI was leaked on Oct 24th and suggested an ACL tear and meniscus injury that ended Breece Hall Fantasy season.
We have to investigate the rest. On November 18th he posted a video to Twitter of his post-surgery bandages being removed. This is typically done the day after surgery. Also, you can also see the pads on the e-stim machine. They are specifically placed to activate the quad muscle (the VMO). This is done very early on in rehab.
On January 30th, the Jet’s Twitter posted a video of him running on a zero-gravity treadmill. He’s moving at a good pace which is great for Breece Hall fantasy owners. This suggests he’s at a higher level of progression because Running on the treadmill typically starts around week 6.
Intensity levels increase once per week, which would put this around 10 weeks post-surgery. Together these pieces suggest surgery was probably November 17th and the general 10-month recovery would be September 17th – or week 2.
Breece Hall Fantasy Injury Update
Since the start of OTAs, Breece has been seen running and cutting on the practice fields. He’s even been clocked at 22mph in straight-line speed. All reports from the coaching staff are positive. He appears to be well on pace to suit up for week 1.
Will Breece Hall Be A Fantasy Stud?
Now the question everyone wants to know is if Breece Hall’s fantasy output will return to the superstar levels that he flashed last year.
Remember those numbers I extrapolated if Breece Hall finished the full season? Do you know the best running back to come from a Hackett offense? They are surprisingly similar.
| Year | Player | Carries | Yards | Touchdowns | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Breece Hall | 181 | 1124 | 9 | 54 | 500 |
| 2020 | Aaron Jones | 201 | 1104 | 9 | 47 | 344 |
While this is encouraging let’s keep in mind that the first year after an ACL surgery comes with physical challenges that often hinder performance. But, they can be masked with help from the offensive system and volume, so let’s explore the team aspects.
Jet’s Offseason Moves
After an ugly finish to 2022, the Jets had to improve the offense. The hiring of Nathaniel Hackett as Offensive Coordinator and the trade for Aaron Rodgers is drawing speculation that they will reboot their epic offense from 2019 to 2021.
While this must be an improvement for the Jets, the offense they are looking to replicate isn’t all glory for the running backs, particularly Breece Hall’s fantasy outlook
Running Back By Committee
The Jet’s running back room is stacked. Both Saleh and Hackett have stated they like the depth at running back. Breece had outright earned the starting job. Michael Carter was RB2 and took over as the starter for a while.
Eventually, he was taken over by Zonovan “Bam” Knight. And finally, the newly drafted rookie Israel Abanikanda from Pitt also looks promising. He posted 1431 yards on the ground last year, including 154 yards against Tennessee. He has significant potential and will surely get touches.
The Hackett System
Second, Hackett’s system does not put the running back in the spotlight. From 2019 through 2021, the Green Bay offense ranked 15th, 1st, and 10th respectively. But, during those years, the run game ranked 15th, 8th, and 18th.
If we break down that 2020 year when the offense was at its peak, we see three RBs being used.
| Player | Touches | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 201 | 1104 |
| Jamaal Williams | 119 | 505 |
| AJ Dillon | 49 | 242 |
In 2021 the pattern splits to a 50/50 load with only 2 RBs. In fact, these patterns repeat throughout all of Hackett’s career. He has used 3 RBs or 2 RBs and a mobile QB in every system since 2010. They all follow a 2/2/1 or a 4/2/1 pattern in splitting touches. Here are some examples from 2013 to 2022.
| Players |
|---|
| Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller |
| Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart |
| Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and T.J. Yeldon |
| Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillion |
| Javonte Williams/Latavius Murray and Melvin Gordon |
The Reality
Now Hackett is in New York with a stable full of capable RBs and we’re expecting him to just feed Breece? I don’t see it. According to comments from the front office and coaching staff they plan to ease Breece back into the fold.
While this is a smart thing for his career, it will be a tough pill to swallow for his fantasy owners. He will likely start out as the guy who Hackett trends towards 100 carries and 10 catches in a season.
Jet’s 2023 Schedule
If you need more reason to believe Breece won’t be a stud right out of the gate is to consider the schedule. The first two games are against Buffalo and Dallas. Both had top 5 run defenses last year. The New England and Kansas City are next and were both top 15 at stopping the run. It will not be an easy start to the season for the ground game.
What to Expect For Breece Hall In 2023
Breece will likely be limited for the first half of the season if not the entire season. This makes his fantasy value suffer. His ADP of 28 is going to leave a lot of fantasy owners looking at a superstar talent with just RB3 numbers for at least the first few weeks. Some fantasy platforms have Breece ranked as low as 50th overall.
Grabbing a solid RB3/flex with a huge upside near the 4/5 turn is much more valuable. Think of him as a long-term investment this season. He should receive a bump up for PPR and dynasty leagues.