I have to preface this by saying I am from upstate NY and the Bills are one of my favorite teams. When I saw Josh Allen on the cover of Madden I got nervous. As a Bills fan and a gamer who has a love/hate relationship with Madden, I’m very familiar with the Madden Curse.
It’s time to find out if It’s real or just something convenient to blame for a drop in production.
Jump To The Previous Madden Curses Results.
The Madden Cover
Madden NFL Football has been around since 1988 when it was released as a computer game. Then, in 1990 they started focusing on making games for consoles. This August, Madden 24 will be the 34th title release of the main games.
Initially, the cover art was just John Madden standing by himself striking a pose that was half classic football coach-like and half shrugging like he didn’t know what to do. Twice there would be players with random jersey numbers in football-like action.
John Madden himself argued not to put players on the cover and keep it generic.
The Dawn of The Madden Curse
Everything changed in Madden 99 when Garrison Hearst was featured on the European version cover art. Hearst had a great year all the way through to the Wild Card game. In the Divisional Round, he broke the ankle bone that lies between both lower leg bones. It was so bad that he missed two whole seasons after and never returned to form. This is where the legend began.
One year is a coincidence, but Madden 2000 had a double whammy of the Madden Curse. The American version featured Madden striking his signature pose but had a background silhouette that was clearly Barry Sanders during one of his more famous runs.
Sanders surprised the world by retiring before the season started. Whoops. They shipped it anyways. The European cover art featured Dorsey Levens, RB for Green Bay, who suffered a knee injury during the season. He recovered and finished the season, but greatly reaggravated it the following year. That’s 3 curse victims in 2 years. Maybe there’s something to this.
More evidence piled up through the years, but is it worse than what is expected? Or is it just highlighting the volatility of injuries within the league?
Well, the answer appears to depend on the position. It is unreasonable to expect every year to be a career year. So, we’ll define The Curse as having more games missed than expected for the position.
Framing Injuries
First, let’s get a base of understanding for injuries. Football is a dangerous sport. These athletes are highly specialized and create unbelievable forces that result in massive collisions or incredibly fast changes in direction that the average body cannot handle. These players are often playing at the edge of physical human limits.
More: Javonte Williams Injury Outlook
The Data Behind The Madden Curse
Several studies have tracked injury data in the NFL. There seems to be a standard risk in each game and each play. Each player has a 1.5% chance of suffering an injury that will make them miss at least one game each time they play a game. Each play has, on average, a 4.3% chance of missing another play due to injury. That’s pretty brutal. In fact, it adds up to where a player is only expected to be available for 14.9 games per season.
Of course, the danger is relative to the job. Not all positions are equal when it comes to injury rates. Punters should not be hurt as often as Running Backs. Different positions play for different amounts of time – some rotate like the defensive line. And there is a difference between offense and defense. Since we’re talking about Madden covers we’ll stick to looking at RB, WR, TE, Defense, and QBs.
Running Backs
Running Backs have the worst injury rates of any position. They are a mix of power and acceleration, and they receive a lot of punishment. The average RB is expected to miss 3.2 games per year due to injury. Of the 7 Madden Running Backs, 5 have missed more than 3 games. The two who did not cross this threshold did not have great years but stayed healthy… enough. Definitely cursed.
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers are expected to miss 2.1 games per year. Madden has only had 4 WRs on the cover. Not a single WR had a reported injury. In fact, Fitzgerald and Megatron had personal best seasons in yards and TD receptions, respectively. On the other hand, OBJ and AB performed decently but received a 1 game suspension for excessive actions. But that’s consequences, not curses. Not cursed.
Tight Ends
Gronk is our only Madden Tight End, and boy did he have a rough year. Tight Ends are expected to miss 2.7 games. He managed to play 8 but fought through a hamstring strain, bruised lung, then finally a herniated disk. He’s the only Madden cover guy to achieve a 300% injury rate. Cursed.
Defense
I lumped all defensive players together because there were only 3 – Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, and Richard Sherman. Surprisingly, linebackers, safeties, and cornerbacks are expected to miss about 1.9 games.
Lewis rested one game at the end of the regular season, Richard played the whole season, but Polamalu suffered an MCL tear. He was out for 4 weeks, returned, then re-injured it.
In an interview Polamalu said he probably rushed it the first time, then he could have rushed back again for the end of the season but prioritized healing for the future. It was a good choice as he was one of the few Madden cover players to suffer a knee injury and return to playing at a high level.
Polamalu shared the cover with Fitzgerald who had no injuries. Likely not cursed.
Quarterbacks
Finally, 11 quarterbacks graced the covers 10 times. Brady and Mahomes shared Madden 22. As expected, they have quite a low rate of injuries and miss an average of 1 game per season. Only three of the cover QBs missed more than 1 game. And, one of those injuries was Mahomes, who went on to win a Super Bowl that year.
In fact, there were better odds of reaching the Super Bowl than getting injured. Definitely not cursed.
Will Josh Allen Fall Victim To The Madden Curse?
I’m feeling better about Josh Allen’s cover appearance. It’s not an instant write-off for the season, and for a QB it might even be a blessing. However, some have argued that the curse actually means the player will take a dip in production by any means.
This has been somewhat true. For many years, in order to be on the cover, a player had to be a stat leader at their position the previous season. Naturally, after a career year a player is most likely to regress to their average.
Of the 14 Madden players who reported no injuries during their season, 85.3% had minor dips in production of less than 8%. That is reasonable. Josh Allen was neither a stat leader in 2022 nor coming off his best year. The dip in production is not expected.
Allen looks to be in the clear and Western New York can breathe easy. Bring out the tables, baby. Madden 24 can’t stop the Bills.
The Madden Curse List Throughout The Years
